Global sea levels are rising fast, so where does that leave the cities most at risk?

Current projections of global average sea level rise are now expected to double by 2100, which would be severely damaging – if not disastrous – for many of the world’s coastal cities, from Ho Chi Minh City and Mumbai to New Orleans and Miami.

Yet the upcoming United Nations conference on sustainable urban development, Habitat III, is unlikely to create the international platform needed to tackle such a global threat, according to Dan Lewis, head of UN Habitat’s urban risk reduction unit.

“The communication of risk is something that most UN member states are not prepared to openly discuss, unless they happen to be Tuvalu or the Maldives or other South Pacific or Caribbean islands,” Lewis told the Guardian.

“Massive [climate-induced] displacement is a big problem that a lot of member states have dressed up as other kinds of issues. But when it comes to the real nuts and bolts of ‘how do you accommodate 100,000 people from Kiribati in the next decade or so?’, I don’t think we are going to see much of an expression emerging about the practical aspects of a major situation like that.”

The 20 world cities with the highest number of people at risk from flooding, accounting for future climate and socioeconomic change. Source: OECD

Sea level rise – along with flooding, storms, heatwaves and other effects of climate change – receives only one (admittedly lengthy) mention in the 175-point New Urban Agenda which member states are due to adopt at Habitat III in Quito, Ecuador:

“We also recognise that urban centres worldwide, especially in developing countries, often have characteristics that make them and their inhabitants especially vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change and other natural and man-made hazards, including earthquakes, extreme weather events, flooding, subsidence, storms including dust and sand storms, heatwaves, water scarcity, droughts, water and air pollution, vector borne diseases, and sea level rise particularly affecting coastal areas, delta regions and small-island developing States, among others.”

There are no direct references to climate-forced displacement nor potential remedies, Lewis notes. Yet he says there are an estimated 12 million people displaced worldwide because of climate events.

The conference, which starts on 17 October, will also include announcements of specific commitments, such as helping local Florida authorities address sea level rise in low-lying, low-income areas.

More than 1,800 people were killed after Hurricane Katrina hit the US in 2005. Photograph: Vincent Laforet/Pool/EPA

Of course, several factors that climate scientists are still working to understand – such as the fragility and likely collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet – mean questions about exactly how fast sea levels will rise, and where the effects will be most severe, must be left open.

While the New Urban Agenda is a global, non-binding plan that aims to promote socially and environmentally sustainable cities, Lewis says the best option for many flood-risk cities looking to take action is to develop independent partnerships and networks to learn from each other – adding that this is the “cheapest and most effective way of doing work”. 

Read more https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/oct/14/global-sea-levels-rising-fast-cities-most-at-risk-flooding-un-habitat

Courtesy of Guardian News & Media Ltd