Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity

I hope not, but it’s hard to find a basis for optimism after reading James Hansen’s book and looking at the current American political situation. Hansen’s prescriptions for averting a climate catastrophe are tough to meet, and at the moment there is a political backlash against bold government endeavors such as these. Right now, taking action on climate change is largely perceived as one competing political issue among many at best, and as a power-grab based on tainted science at worst. Hansen argues that maintaining the human civilization that developed after the last ice age depends on us stabilizing the climate.

It was James Hansen’s testimony before congress in 1988 that brought global warming into the public square as an issue, and he has been at the center of the shouting match ever since. He begins the book by recounting his efforts to convince the political leadership of the importance of tackling climate change in the Bush Administration. Unfortunately, the political appointees in NASA did all they could to keep him from expressing the views in a public setting, using a law about government employees engaging in political campaigns. Hansen expressly says that he prefers to stick to the science, but that the problem is so daunting that he had to speak out.

Hansen actually talks about the science behind climate change, and makes it relatively easy for readers to understand. With a large amount of Co2 emissions, heat is trapped in the atmosphere, and there’s an energy imbalance between how much heat is coming into the earth from the sun and how much is radiated back into space- thus resulting in the temperature warming up. So Co2 is a climate “forcing” as he puts it. There are many kinds of climate forcings, many of them natural, but as Hansen points out, human Co2 emissions outpace them by several orders of magnitude. What has Hansen so concerned about the present situation is his work with paleo-climate data, which, he says, are more important than climate models, useful though they may be. He persuasively argues that the last mass-extinction coincided with release of powerful methane hydrates in the ocean, and that this led to amplifying feedback loops, and that we are in danger of pushing the climate to a similar tipping point.

The solutions he presents are a tall order to meet, and frankly I think they will be nearly impossible in the current political situation. First and foremost, we need to cut carbon emissions to 350 ppm to avoid pushing the climate past a tipping point, and cap-and-trade won’t get us there. The “offsets” are based on phantom emissions reductions in the future, which are rubber-stamped by an international body and then sold to other companies so that they can emit more carbon- most of the targeted “offsets” are rarely met, and the energy efficiency they would have achieved in any case without the cap-and-trade. What he proposes is a tax-and-dividend, (or fee-and-dividend)- a gradually rising price on carbon collected by the government, and proceeds distributed to citizens. The idea is to create an incentive for a drastically reduced carbon economy because, as he put it in an NPR interview, as long as fossil fuels are cheaper, people will continue to use them. Second, we need to phase out coal- put a moratorium on all new coal plants unless they are built with the capacity to completely capture their carbon emissions. Energy efficiency is an important aspect too, but people buying more efficient light bulbs and cars is not going to fix this. Perhaps most controversially among environmentalists, he backs the increased use of nuclear power to meet our electricity needs; he is all for wind and solar as part of the solution, but as of now they have not shown enough consistency in meeting energy needs.

What makes it particularly difficult for me to maintain optimism that a political solution to this is going to be found is what Hansen says about special interests and the necessity of public pressure. He is very critical of the way special interests have influenced the way environmental legislation is crafted, and of the way even organizations such as the Environmental Defense Fund have a “Washington mentality” which prevents what needs to be done from being done; i.e., settling for cap-and-trade and for capturing carbon emissions to be added to new coal plants “eventually.” Unfortunately, the recent Supreme Court decision in Citizens United does not bode well for Hansen’s hopes. Furthermore, he says that there needs to be public pressure for the best legislation, and perhaps even civil disobedience directed at coal companies. Unfortunately, at the moment the populist winds are not blowing in this direction. The people who see climate change as the important issue that Hansen does are in a small minority. And the problem is that by the time climate change causes disastrous effects, it will be too late to do much about it. There may…

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A January 2009 peer-reviewed study of active American climate scientists found that over 97% of them agreed that, “human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures”. Climate scientists’ confidence factor regarding its predictions about future sea level rise and significant extinction events if we don’t reform our energy sources is also high at 95%. Science, and Hansen in his book both explain and report those predictions; that if we fail to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions science predicts catastrophe to humanity – both in lives, security, and our economic base.

Therefore I would argue that this generation of the U.S. public is facing our single greatest historical test relative to what the rest of the world requires of us in order to defend humanity against catastrophe. Is this mere hyperbole on my part? Especially given the enormous tests previously thrown our way – such as the U.S.’s engagement in the Atlantic Theater of WWII and our contributions in the Cold War. It’s not hyperbole if you’ve studied the ecological and economic damage coming our way if we don’t quickly reverse the rate we emit anthropogenic (“human-generated”) greenhouse gases coupled to the U.S. government’s inability or unwillingness to set policies mitigating global warming; the latter being the primary factor why it falls on the American people’s shoulders to get our government moving out domestically. Especially since we need to garner leverage to better engage the rest of the world, China and India in particular. Therefore my `greatest challenge in America’s history’ assertion becomes at least arguable if not self-evident.

Even being cognizant of this reality, I was concerned that Dr. Hansen’s naming the latter portion of this book’s subtitle went too far with, ” . . . Our Last Chance to Save Humanity”. `Saving humanity’, like we to risk extinction? The only reason I still purchased the book in spite of the perceived hyperbole was the immense respect Dr. Hansen has earned within the scientific community for both his discoveries, his ability to have his predictions stay ahead of the curve where the peer-accepted community is in constant catch-up mode, and his willingness to speak truth to power. Was this portion of the subtitle the work of an editor seeking a more provocative spin to improve book sales? No, Hansen unequivocally states in the first page of the Preface, “The startling conclusion is that the continued exploitation of all fossil fuels on Earth threatens not only the other millions of other species on the planet but also the survival of humanity itself – and the timetable is shorter than we thought.” Dr. Hansen sets an incredibly high bar for argument; does he and the scientific evidence meet the challenge?

I would say the effort to hit that high bar is arguable. However the benefits of understanding the best features of Dr. Hansen’s thesis far outweigh some fundamental weaknesses contained within the book. Therefore I think this is perhaps the most important book I’ve read in my lifetime and while flawed, the most strident recommendation I’ve ever made for a book I rated a mere three stars.

I found the biggest strength of the book is the science. Dr. Hansen does a masterful job of explaining a very complex theory with a lot of moving parts in a manner where I believe anyone capable of passing a high school physics class can easily understand all his lessons and those of us who can’t will still grasp the most important parts while not losing a desire to move through those passages we don’t completely understand. His tutorials include lots of graphs and his lessons were pragmatically framed in a manner that easily and convincingly refutes the denialists who both falsely misrepresent our understanding of climate change and enjoy vastly more media coverage than they deserve (especially since the media is unable or in Fox News’ and others’ case, also unwilling to refute denialists’ false claims as they are presented in both print and radio/TV).

Dr. Hansen was also masterful in presenting his lessons in a way where denialist claims didn’t dominate the material at the expense of cluttering his attempt to teach us the actual science. Instead Hansen reveals the relevant laws of physics coupled to the scientific community’s observed findings which allows the reader to easily conclude how absurd, dishonest, and unscientific nearly all denialist claims that get traction in the media truly are. For example 2009’s cold summer in part of the American Midwest which was relentlessly promoted by denialists like Matt Drudge as evidence AGW is not a valid theory; Hansen rebuts by providing Figure 21, which shows how trivially small that cold area is relative to vast expanse of geography while the totality of the Northern Hemisphere experienced the second hottest summer in 130 years in 2009 with the most vulnerable and sensitive…

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